Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers · Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Vilanova vs Can Vidalet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Vilanova and 0.85 for Can Vidalet, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Vilanova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vilanova win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vilanova home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Can Vidalet away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vilanova to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Vilanova and 0.85 for Can Vidalet, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Vilanova
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mollerussa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Hospitalet · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Cornellà · 2-1 (W)
Can Vidalet
- 2026-05-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilanova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs L'Escala · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vic · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Vilanova | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Montañesa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Grama | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Pobla Mafumet | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlètic Lleida | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Martinenc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Europa II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | San Cristóbal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vilanova win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.