Vilassar Mar vs Badalona Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vilassar Mar and 0.75 for Badalona, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Vilassar Mar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vilassar Mar win

48.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vilassar Mar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Badalona away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vilassar Mar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Vilassar Mar and 0.75 for Badalona, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Vilassar Mar win48%

Draw30%

Badalona win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.9%
0–013.5%
1–112.7%
2–010.6%
0–110.2%

Recent form

Vilassar Mar

2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-0 (W)

Badalona

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Montañesa · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 0-2 Badalona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2026-03-08T16:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 0-0 Badalona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
2025-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-2 Badalona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vilassar Mar win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.