· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vilassar Mar and 1.95 for Pobla Mafumet, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Pobla Mafumet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pobla Mafumet win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vilassar Mar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pobla Mafumet away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Vilassar Mar
- 2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-0 (W)
Pobla Mafumet
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Lleida · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-0 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-0 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2023-11-26T11:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-0 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2023-01-29T11:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-2 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2022-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 3-1 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2022-02-06T11:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 0-1 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2021-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-0 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2019-12-01T11:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-0 Pobla Mafumet (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montañesa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Grama | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Badalona | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | L'Hospitalet | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Pobla Mafumet | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Vilanova | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Martinenc | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Europa II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Atlètic Lleida | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Peralada | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Cornellà | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | L'Escala | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Mollerussa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | San Cristóbal | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Tona | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pobla Mafumet win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.