Camp de Futbol Premià de Dalt · Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Vilassar Mar vs Tona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Vilassar Mar and 0.90 for Tona, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Vilassar Mar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vilassar Mar home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tona away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 1–015.0%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Vilassar Mar
- 2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-0 (W)
Tona
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Peralada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mollerussa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs L'Escala · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 3-1 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2026-01-04T10:45:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 0-2 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2025-03-16T10:45:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 0-2 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-11-03T16:30:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 0-3 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 2-0 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2024-01-21T10:45:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 1-1 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2023-01-22T15:45:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 2-2 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
- 2022-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · Vilassar Mar 0-0 Tona (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Vilanova | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Montañesa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Grama | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Badalona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Pobla Mafumet | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlètic Lleida | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Martinenc | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 10 | Tona | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Europa II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Peralada | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mollerussa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | San Cristóbal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Cornellà | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | Vilassar Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.