Estádio Gil Bernardes da Silveira · Analysis updated 04:41 UTC
Vilavelhense vs CTE Colatina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.10 expected goals for Vilavelhense and 1.45 for CTE Colatina, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Vilavelhense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vilavelhense win
70.2% probability
Expected goals
3.10 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vilavelhense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CTE Colatina away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vilavelhense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.10 goals for Vilavelhense and 1.45 for CTE Colatina, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.4%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
Vilavelhense
- 2026-06-23T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-17T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-28T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco ES · 1-1 (D)
CTE Colatina
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Linhares · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-08-18T22:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs GEL · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Doze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Linhares · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 11-0 CTE Colatina (Capixaba B)
- 2024-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 6-2 CTE Colatina (Capixaba B)
- 2022-02-09T18:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 2-0 CTE Colatina (Capixaba)
Capixaba B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Linhares | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| 3 | Rive | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Doze | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 7 | Tupy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
| 10 | Pinheiros | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vilavelhense win, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.