· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Vilavelhense vs Desportiva ES Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Vilavelhense and 1.00 for Desportiva ES, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Vilavelhense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vilavelhense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Desportiva ES away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Vilavelhense
- 2026-06-23T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-17T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-28T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco ES · 1-1 (D)
Desportiva ES
- 2026-03-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-02-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilavelhense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilavelhense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-02-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-02-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forte FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-27T23:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 1-1 Desportiva ES (Capixaba)
- 2026-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 1-1 Desportiva ES (Capixaba)
- 2026-01-20T23:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 2-1 Desportiva ES (Capixaba)
- 2025-06-29T18:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 1-0 Desportiva ES (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2025-03-08T20:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 1-2 Desportiva ES (Capixaba)
- 2025-03-05T22:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 1-4 Desportiva ES (Capixaba)
- 2025-02-09T21:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 0-4 Desportiva ES (Capixaba)
- 2024-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 0-3 Desportiva ES (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2024-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 1-1 Desportiva ES (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2024-06-09T13:00:00.000Z · Vilavelhense 0-3 Desportiva ES (Copa Espírito Santo)
Capixaba table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitória ES | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Serra Talhada | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco ES | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Porto Vitória | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Desportiva ES | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Real Noroeste | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Forte FC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Capixaba SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | Rio Branco-VN | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.