El Fortin · Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Villa Mitre vs Costa Brava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Villa Mitre and 0.47 for Costa Brava, a combined total of 1.36. That distribution gives Villa Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
81.4% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 0.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villa Mitre home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Costa Brava away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villa Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 38% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Villa Mitre and 0.47 for Costa Brava, a combined 1.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.6%
- 1–022.9%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–010.2%
Recent form
Villa Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Huracan Las Heras · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Antoniana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-0 (D)
Costa Brava
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Mitre · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Mitre · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 81.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.