Estadio El Fortin · Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
Villa Mitre vs Guillermo Brown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Villa Mitre and 0.25 for Guillermo Brown, a combined total of 1.05. That distribution gives Villa Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 42%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 9% for over 2.5 goals and 12% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 35%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villa Mitre win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villa Mitre home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guillermo Brown away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
58%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–035.0%
- 1–028.0%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–17.0%
Recent form
Villa Mitre
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-1 (L)
Guillermo Brown
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Germinal de Rawson · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 3-0 Guillermo Brown (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 0-1 Guillermo Brown (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 2-1 Guillermo Brown (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 0-3 Guillermo Brown (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-21T17:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 1-2 Guillermo Brown (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-04-20T19:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 2-1 Guillermo Brown (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villa Mitre win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 12% and over 2.5 goals at 9%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.