Estadio El Fortin · Analysis updated 07:13 UTC
Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Villa Mitre and 0.35 for Huracan Las Heras, a combined total of 1.15. That distribution gives Villa Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 11% for over 2.5 goals and 16% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 32%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
84.9% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villa Mitre home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Huracan Las Heras away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–031.7%
- 1–025.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–010.1%
- 1–18.9%
Recent form
Villa Mitre
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-1 (L)
Huracan Las Heras
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Villa Mitre · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Antoniana · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 3-0 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
- 2022-07-10T18:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 1-2 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
- 2022-03-27T19:30:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 2-0 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
- 2021-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 3-3 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
- 2021-04-11T19:30:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 1-2 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
- 2021-01-10T20:30:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 2-2 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
- 2020-02-16T20:00:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 0-0 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
- 2019-09-22T18:30:00.000Z · Villa Mitre 2-0 Huracan Las Heras (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 84.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 16% and over 2.5 goals at 11%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.