Estadio El Fortin · Analysis updated 00:35 UTC
Villa Mitre vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Villa Mitre and 0.65 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Villa Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.3% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villa Mitre home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kimberley Mar del Plata away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villa Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 34% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Villa Mitre and 0.65 for Kimberley Mar del Plata, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.7%
- 1–019.2%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Villa Mitre
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-1 (L)
Kimberley Mar del Plata
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.