· Analysis updated 18:13 UTC
Villa Nova vs Democrata SL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Villa Nova and 1.53 for Democrata SL, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Democrata SL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villa Nova home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Democrata SL away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Democrata SL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Villa Nova and 1.53 for Democrata SL, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Villa Nova
- 2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Democrata SL · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Democrata SL · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aymorés · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aymorés · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Valeriodoce · 1-0 (W)
Democrata SL
- 2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Nova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Villa Nova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamoré · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Mamoré · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs CAP · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Mineiro - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uberaba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Valeriodoce | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | Democrata SL | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | BOA | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Aymorés | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Villa Nova | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | CAP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Mamoré | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Guarani MG | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Coimbra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Caldense | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Ipatinga | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.