Estadio Municipal de Villafranca de los Barros · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Villafranca vs Jerez Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Villafranca and 0.88 for Jerez, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Villafranca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villafranca win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villafranca home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jerez away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Villafranca
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gévora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Amalia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraíz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanovense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadiana · 2-0 (W)
Jerez
- 2026-10-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Guadiana · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Azuaga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Castuera · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · Villafranca 2-1 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2026-01-04T11:30:00.000Z · Villafranca 1-1 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2025-04-06T16:30:00.000Z · Villafranca 3-2 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2024-11-24T11:30:00.000Z · Villafranca 0-0 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2024-02-04T11:30:00.000Z · Villafranca 1-1 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2023-09-24T10:00:00.000Z · Villafranca 2-0 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2023-01-29T11:30:00.000Z · Villafranca 1-1 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2022-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · Villafranca 1-4 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2022-02-27T11:15:00.000Z · Villafranca 0-0 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2021-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · Villafranca 1-3 Jerez (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Llerenense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Moralo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Castuera | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Jerez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Villafranca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | CD Zafra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Montijo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gévora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Plasencia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Quintana | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Jaraíz | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 3 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villafranca win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.