· Analysis updated 08:48 UTC
Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Villalbés and 1.27 for Atlético Arteixo, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Villalbés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villalbés home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villalbés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Villalbés and 1.27 for Atlético Arteixo, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Villalbés
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Viveiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Estradense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Silva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Boiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 3-2 (W)
Atlético Arteixo
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Antela | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Estradense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlético Arteixo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Barco | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Alondras | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Silva | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontevedra II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Coruña | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Arenteiro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Celta de Vigo III | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.