Villanovense vs Jaraíz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Villanovense and 0.77 for Jaraíz, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Villanovense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Villanovense win

54.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Villanovense home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jaraíz away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villanovense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Villanovense and 0.77 for Jaraíz, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Villanovense win55%

Draw26%

Jaraíz win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.6%
1–111.9%
2–011.7%
0–010.4%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Villanovense

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villafranca · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llerenense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraíz · 0-1 (L)

Jaraíz

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Llerenense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moralo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Llerenense	5	4	1	0	4	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	10	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Puebla Calzada	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Gévora	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	1	7
10	Montijo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	1	3	2	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Quintana	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Guadiana	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Villanovense win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.