Campo Municipal Los Barreros · Analysis updated 23:12 UTC
Villaralbo vs Colegios Diocesanos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Villaralbo and 0.85 for Colegios Diocesanos, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Villaralbo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villaralbo win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
2.17 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villaralbo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Colegios Diocesanos away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villaralbo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Villaralbo and 0.85 for Colegios Diocesanos, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Villaralbo
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Almazán · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-4 (L)
Colegios Diocesanos
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Calasanz de Soria · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Almazán · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Santa Marta · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Burgos Promesas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | UD Santa Marta | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Palencia CF | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Bembibre | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Guijuelo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mansillés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Arandina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Almazán | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Turégano | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villaralbo win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.