Campo Municipal Los Barreros · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Villaralbo vs Mojados Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Villaralbo and 0.77 for Mojados, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Villaralbo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villaralbo win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villaralbo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mojados away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villaralbo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 27% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Villaralbo and 0.77 for Mojados, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Villaralbo
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Almazán · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-4 (L)
Mojados
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Virgen del Camino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Numancia II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cristo Atlético · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · Villaralbo 1-1 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Villaralbo 2-1 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · Villaralbo 1-0 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-10-27T15:30:00.000Z · Villaralbo 1-1 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgos Promesas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Mansillés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Palencia CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Calasanz de Soria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Salamanca II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Guijuelo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Turégano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Unionistas II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Mirandés II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villaralbo win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.