· Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Villaralbo vs Unionistas II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Villaralbo and 1.16 for Unionistas II, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Villaralbo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Villaralbo win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villaralbo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unionistas II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villaralbo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Villaralbo and 1.16 for Unionistas II, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Villaralbo
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Almazán · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-4 (L)
Unionistas II
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bembibre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turégano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Calasanz de Soria · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villaralbo win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.