Estadio de la Ceramica · Referee L. E. Morona del Campo · Analysis updated 17:12 UTC
Villarreal II vs FC Cartagena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Villarreal II and 1.26 for FC Cartagena, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Villarreal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villarreal II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Cartagena away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Villarreal II and 1.26 for FC Cartagena, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Villarreal II
- 2026-10-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 2-2 (D)
FC Cartagena
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Antequera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaragoza · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Villarreal II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Real Murcia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Cartagena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Real Jaén | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Alcorcon | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Hércules | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Madrid II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Huesca | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Antequera | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Gimnastic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Algeciras | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Sant Andreu | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Juventud Torremolinos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Teruel | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.