Estadio de la Ceramica · Referee G. Riu · Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Villarreal II vs Ibiza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Villarreal II and 1.07 for Ibiza, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Villarreal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarreal II win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villarreal II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ibiza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 50.0% vs market 45.9%, edge +4.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.9% | 50.0% | 2.00 | +4.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.3% | 71.8% | 1.39 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.0% | 45.3% | 2.21 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 54.5% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 28.3% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.2% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 50.0% | 2.00 | -4.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Villarreal II
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 3-0 (W)
Ibiza
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sant Andreu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Majadahonda · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:15:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-0 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-12-14T11:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-0 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2025-02-02T11:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 1-2 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 1-1 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2023-03-11T17:30:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-0 Ibiza (Segunda División)
- 2022-11-20T13:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 1-0 Ibiza (Segunda División)
- 2021-03-21T11:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-3 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2021-01-10T11:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-2 Ibiza (Primera División RFEF - Group 3)
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Hercules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarreal II win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.