· Analysis updated 08:52 UTC
Villarreal II vs Zaragoza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Villarreal II and 1.35 for Zaragoza, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Villarreal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarreal II win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villarreal II home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zaragoza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Villarreal II
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 3-0 (W)
Zaragoza
- 2026-10-23T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-2 Zaragoza (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-24T17:30:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-0 Zaragoza (Segunda División)
- 2023-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · Villarreal II 0-2 Zaragoza (Segunda División)
- 2023-01-14T15:15:00.000Z · Villarreal II 2-3 Zaragoza (Segunda División)
- 2022-10-15T14:15:00.000Z · Villarreal II 1-2 Zaragoza (Segunda División)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarreal II win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.