Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal · Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Villarreal III vs Torrellano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Villarreal III and 0.70 for Torrellano, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Villarreal III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarreal III win
68.7% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villarreal III home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torrellano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Villarreal III and 0.70 for Torrellano, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.4%
- 1–013.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–09.1%
Recent form
Villarreal III
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Soneja · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Levante II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante II · 1-3 (L)
Torrellano
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Soneja · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Acero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Vall de Uxó · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hércules II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Torrent · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal III | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Levante II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vall de Uxó | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Hércules II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Torrent | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Crevillente | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Eldense B | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Roda | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Acero | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Saguntino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Atzeneta | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Soneja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | SC Torrevieja | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Ontinyent 1931 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Jove Español | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Buñol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Torrellano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Utiel | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarreal III win, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.