Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.34 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Villarreal to Win

48.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Villarreal win48%

Draw23%

Atletico Madrid win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.5%
2–19.4%
1–07.8%
2–07.0%
1–27.0%

Why the model likes this

Villarreal home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Madrid away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarreal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Villarreal and 1.34 for Atletico Madrid, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Villarreal

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 3-0 (W)

Atletico Madrid

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	29

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.