Estadio de la Ceramica · Referee J. Manzano · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.53 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Deportivo La Coruna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo La Coruna win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villarreal home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Coruna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
Villarreal
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2018-05-12T16:30:00.000Z · Villarreal 4-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2018-01-07T17:30:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2017-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2017-01-14T19:45:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2016-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2016-01-03T17:15:00.000Z · Villarreal 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2015-05-02T20:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2014-12-21T11:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 3-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2011-02-13T18:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo La Coruna win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.