Estadio de la Ceramica · Referee M. Busquets · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Villarreal vs Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.94 for Levante, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarreal win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villarreal home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Levante away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 47.2% vs market 40.6%, edge +6.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +6.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 62.0% | 62.2% | 1.61 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.0% | 79.1% | 1.26 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.9% | 16.9% | 5.92 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 83.1% | 83.1% | 1.20 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.9% | 37.8% | 2.65 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 21.1% | 20.9% | 4.78 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -6.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Villarreal
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Levante
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-0 Levante (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 5-1 Levante (La Liga)
- 2026-02-18T19:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-0 Levante (La Liga)
- 2022-08-03T17:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 3-1 Levante (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-02T14:15:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-2 Levante (La Liga)
- 2022-01-03T18:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 5-0 Levante (La Liga)
- 2021-07-29T00:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-0 Levante (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-04-18T19:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 5-1 Levante (La Liga)
- 2021-02-03T18:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-1 Levante (Copa del Rey)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarreal win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.