Villarrobledo vs Marchamalo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Villarrobledo and 0.77 for Marchamalo, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Villarrobledo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Villarrobledo win

59.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Villarrobledo home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marchamalo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarrobledo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Villarrobledo and 0.77 for Marchamalo, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Villarrobledo win60%

Draw24%

Marchamalo win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.4%
2–012.2%
1–111.1%
2–19.4%
0–08.5%

Recent form

Villarrobledo

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Solana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Noblejas · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 1-1 (D)

Marchamalo

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchego · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Villarrobledo win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.