Estadio Boetticher · Analysis updated 02:13 UTC
Villaverde-Boetticher vs Trival Valderas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Villaverde-Boetticher and 1.20 for Trival Valderas, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Trival Valderas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Villaverde-Boetticher home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trival Valderas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Villaverde-Boetticher
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Madrid · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Adarve · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Galapagar · 1-1 (D)
Trival Valderas
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Aranjuez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T10:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 0-2 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2025-10-26T10:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 1-1 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2025-03-23T10:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 2-1 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2024-11-10T10:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 0-2 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2022-03-16T19:00:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 1-0 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2021-11-17T19:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 0-0 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2021-03-21T10:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 3-0 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2021-03-03T19:00:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 0-2 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2020-02-09T10:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 2-1 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
- 2019-09-22T09:30:00.000Z · Villaverde-Boetticher 0-1 Trival Valderas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Móstoles | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Las Rozas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Colonia Moscardó | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Galapagar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Cala Pozuelo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Unión Adarve | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Trival Valderas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Aranjuez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Parla Escuela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Alcobendas Sport | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.