Vindbjart vs Våg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Vindbjart and 1.55 for Våg, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Vindbjart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vindbjart home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Våg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vindbjart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Vindbjart and 1.55 for Våg, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vindbjart win40%

Draw23%

Våg win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–18.6%
1–28.1%
1–06.7%
2–26.7%

Recent form

Vindbjart

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brodd · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Start · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk II · 1-3 (L)

Våg

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Staal Jørpeland · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varhaug · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brodd · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	23	14	6	3	32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	23	13	4	6	20	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	12	3	8	8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	12	2	9	20	38
5	Varhaug	23	10	6	7	5	36
6	Viking II	23	10	5	8	23	35
7	Brodd	23	10	3	10	2	33
8	Stabæk II	23	10	3	10	-1	33
9	Våg	23	10	2	11	1	32
10	Odd II	23	8	5	10	-10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	7	5	11	-13	26
12	Haugesund II	23	7	4	12	-21	25
13	Hinna	23	6	5	12	-25	23
14	Åkra	23	4	3	16	-41	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.