Vindbjart vs Varhaug Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vindbjart and 1.45 for Varhaug, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Vindbjart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vindbjart home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varhaug away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vindbjart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Vindbjart and 1.45 for Varhaug, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vindbjart win45%

Draw23%

Varhaug win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.1%
1–27.5%
1–07.1%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Vindbjart

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brodd · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Start · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk II · 1-3 (L)

Varhaug

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vindbjart · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Madla · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Våg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Staal Jørpeland · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flekkerøy · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	24	15	6	3	34	51
2	Mandalskameratene	24	14	4	6	21	46
3	Flekkerøy	24	12	3	9	7	39
4	Varhaug	24	11	6	7	6	39
5	Vindbjart	24	12	2	10	19	38
6	Brodd	24	11	3	10	6	36
7	Viking II	24	10	5	9	21	35
8	Våg	24	11	2	11	2	35
9	Stabæk II	24	10	3	11	-3	33
10	Odd II	24	8	5	11	-14	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	24	7	5	12	-15	26
12	Hinna	24	7	5	12	-23	26
13	Haugesund II	24	7	4	13	-22	25
14	Åkra	24	5	3	16	-39	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.