· Analysis updated 06:24 UTC
Vipava vs Litija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Vipava and 2.80 for Litija, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Litija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Litija win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vipava home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Litija away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Litija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 17% / 16% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Vipava and 2.80 for Litija, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–15.9%
- 0–25.9%
- 2–25.8%
Recent form
Vipava
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Litija · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šobec Lesce · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zidgrad Idrija · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Svoboda · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Trbovlje · 2-3 (L)
Litija
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dob · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vipava · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Adria · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs IB 1975 Ljubljana · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Šobec Lesce · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izola | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 30 |
| 2 | Zidgrad Idrija | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Dob | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Litija | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Šencur | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Tolmin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Rudar Trbovlje | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 13 |
| 8 | Škofja Loka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Adria | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Žiri | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | IB 1975 Ljubljana | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Šobec Lesce | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Vipava | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -27 | 7 |
| 14 | Svoboda | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Litija win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.