· Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Vipers vs KCCA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Vipers and 0.54 for KCCA, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Vipers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vipers win
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vipers home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
KCCA away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vipers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 24% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Vipers and 0.54 for KCCA, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 2–015.2%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–110.0%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Vipers
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataka · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maroons · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Blacks Power · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ntugasaze · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Nouadhibou · 0-0 (D)
KCCA
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ntugasaze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs URA · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kigezi HomeBoyz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Express · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Vipers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Police | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | Express | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vipers win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.