· Analysis updated 15:00 UTC
Virtus Bolzano vs Calvi Noale Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Virtus Bolzano and 1.68 for Calvi Noale, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Calvi Noale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Calvi Noale win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Virtus Bolzano home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Calvi Noale away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Calvi Noale to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Virtus Bolzano and 1.68 for Calvi Noale, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Virtus Bolzano
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Calvi Noale · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altavilla · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandona · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luparense · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brian Lignano · 2-1 (W)
Calvi Noale
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Bolzano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brian Lignano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Legnago Salus · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schio · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luparense | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Clodiense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Sandona | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Legnago Salus | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Campodarsego | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Bassano Virtus | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | LME | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Mestre | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Este | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Conegliano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Altavilla | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Triestina | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Virtus Bolzano | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 9 |
| 15 | Calvi Noale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | FC Obermais | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Schio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Calvi Noale win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.