Virtus Entella vs Carrarese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.00 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Virtus Entella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Virtus Entella home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carrarese away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Virtus Entella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Virtus Entella and 1.00 for Carrarese, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Virtus Entella win45%

Draw28%

Carrarese win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.9%
1–112.9%
0–09.5%
0–19.5%
2–08.7%

Recent form

Virtus Entella

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vicenza Virtus · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 0-1 (L)

Carrarese

2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Padova · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Catanzaro · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	7	16
2	Mantova	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Modena	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	6	12
5	Ascoli	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Avellino	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Pisa	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Benevento	6	3	1	2	3	10
9	Hellas Verona	6	2	1	3	2	7
10	Padova	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Cesena	6	1	4	1	-1	7
12	Arezzo	6	2	1	3	-7	7
13	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	1	3	2	1	6
15	Cremonese	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Vicenza Virtus	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Carrarese	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Catanzaro	6	1	0	5	-6	3
20	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	-3	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.