· Analysis updated 16:01 UTC
Virtus Entella vs Carrarese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 0.99 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Virtus Entella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Virtus Entella home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carrarese away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Virtus Entella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Virtus Entella and 0.99 for Carrarese, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.7%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Virtus Entella
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vicenza Virtus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 0-1 (L)
Carrarese
- 2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Padova · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Catanzaro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Empoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.