Stadio Giovanni Paolo II · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Virtus Francavilla and 1.37 for Sarnese, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Virtus Francavilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Virtus Francavilla home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarnese away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Virtus Francavilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Virtus Francavilla and 1.37 for Sarnese, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Virtus Francavilla
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gladiator · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Martina Franca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brindisi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Melfi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs USD Palmese · 3-1 (W)
Sarnese
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Lodigiani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ossese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venafro · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Turris | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Gravina | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Brindisi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Manfredonia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Real Normanna | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Ebolitana | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Real Forio 2014 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | USD Palmese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Fidelis Andria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Nardò | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Ischia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Melfi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.