Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Virtus Verona vs Pavonese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Virtus Verona and 0.95 for Pavonese, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Virtus Verona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Virtus Verona win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Virtus Verona home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pavonese away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Virtus Verona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Virtus Verona and 0.95 for Pavonese, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
Recent form
Virtus Verona
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nibbiano & Valtidone · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritium · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Chievo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavonese · 0-1 (L)
Pavonese
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Calepina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorenzuola · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Verona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritium · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Chievo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Piacenza | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Calepina | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Virtus Verona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pavonese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Pro Palazzolo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Tritium | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Virtus Verona win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.