Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Virtus Verona vs Villa Valle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Virtus Verona and 1.11 for Villa Valle, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Villa Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.8% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Virtus Verona home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Villa Valle away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villa Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 30% / 30% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Virtus Verona and 1.11 for Villa Valle, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Virtus Verona
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Milano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rovato Vertovese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Piacenza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Valle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 0-1 (L)
Villa Valle
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Calepina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tritium · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorenzuola · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Milan II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Chievo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Piacenza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Pro Palazzolo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Milan II | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Brusaporto | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Virtus Verona | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Calepina | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Scanzorosciate | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Club Milano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Pavonese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.