Tonino Benelli · Referee J. Gallorini · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Vis Pesaro vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Vis Pesaro and 1.18 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Guidonia Montecelio 1937 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.5% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vis Pesaro home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 26% / 30% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Vis Pesaro and 1.18 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–29.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 61.2% vs market 47.8%, edge +13.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 47.8% | 61.2% | 1.63 | +13.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 43.9% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 55.7% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 74.4% | 74.5% | 1.34 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 69.9% | 69.9% | 1.43 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.3% | 30.2% | 3.31 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 25.8% | 25.6% | 3.91 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.2% | 38.8% | 2.58 | -13.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Vis Pesaro
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Spezia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Forli · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostia Mare · 1-2 (L)
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vis Pesaro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Livorno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Latina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Pescara | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Reggiana | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Livorno | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | Perugia | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | Vado | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Torres | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Campobasso FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Latina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Pineto | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Atalanta II | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Forli | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Ostia Mare | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Pianese | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 19 | Gubbio | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 7 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.