Intwari Stadium · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Vital'O vs Rukinzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Vital'O and 0.85 for Rukinzo, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Vital'O the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.1% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vital'O home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rukinzo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 33% / 34% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Vital'O and 0.85 for Rukinzo, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–015.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
Vital'O
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Royal Vision · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayanza United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ngozi City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 1-1 (D)
Rukinzo
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Durban City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Durban City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Star · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Musongati · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Panthere Noir · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Le Messager Ngozi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Musongati | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Flambeau du Centre | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Vital'O | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Never Give Up Academy | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Young Star | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.