· Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Vitesse vs Al-Jazira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.37 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Al-Jazira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Jazira win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitesse home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Jazira away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Jazira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Vitesse and 1.37 for Al-Jazira, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–29.0%
Recent form
Vitesse
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Emmen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 0-2 (L)
Al-Jazira
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · Vitesse 1-2 Al-Jazira (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Jazira win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.