Vitez vs Bratstvo Gračanica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Vitez and 0.88 for Bratstvo Gračanica, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Vitez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vitez home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bratstvo Gračanica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitez to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 32% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Vitez and 0.88 for Bratstvo Gračanica, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Vitez win38%

Draw32%

Bratstvo Gračanica win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–015.3%
0–015.0%
1–113.4%
0–113.1%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Vitez

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar Kakanj · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Čapljina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Igman Konjic · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-3 (L)

Bratstvo Gračanica

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TOŠK Tešanj · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Budućnost Banovići · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tomislav · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitez · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	10	7	3	0	8	24
2	Travnik	10	7	1	2	8	22
3	Stupčanica Olovo	10	6	2	2	14	20
4	Igman Konjic	10	5	4	1	5	19
5	Sloboda Tuzla	10	5	3	2	9	18
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	3	5	2	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	10	3	4	3	5	13
10	Budućnost Banovići	10	2	4	4	-8	10
11	Vitez	10	2	3	5	-6	9
12	Zvijezda Gradačac	10	2	2	6	-2	8
13	Rudar Kakanj	10	2	2	6	-8	8
14	Čapljina	10	2	2	6	-10	8
15	Tomislav	10	2	2	6	-13	8
16	Radnik Hadžići	10	2	1	7	-7	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.