Vitez vs Tuzla City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Vitez and 1.07 for Tuzla City, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Vitez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vitez win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vitez home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tuzla City away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitez to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Vitez and 1.07 for Tuzla City, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Vitez win56%

Draw23%

Tuzla City win22%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.6%
1–010.0%
2–19.9%
2–09.3%
3–16.1%

Recent form

Vitez

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Budućnost Banovići · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Tomislav · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Posušje · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar Kakanj · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Čapljina · 1-0 (W)

Tuzla City

2026-06-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tomislav · 0-4 (L)
2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 0-4 (L)
2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 1-4 (L)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Hadžići · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	3	5	2	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vitez win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.