Vítkovice vs Karviná II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Vítkovice and 1.21 for Karviná II, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Vítkovice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vítkovice win

48.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vítkovice home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vítkovice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Vítkovice and 1.21 for Karviná II, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Vítkovice win49%

Draw24%

Karviná II win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–19.5%
1–09.3%
2–07.9%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Vítkovice

2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Karviná II · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zlín II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 0-0 (D)

Karviná II

2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Blansko · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hodonín · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
2	Uničov	13	9	2	2	13	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	8	3	3	10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	8	3	3	8	27
5	Hranice	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	7	1	5	6	22
7	Uherský Brod	14	6	3	5	1	21
8	Vítkovice	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Slovácko II	13	5	3	5	6	18
10	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Hodonín	14	5	2	7	2	17
12	Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	-13	17
13	Zlín II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
14	Karviná II	13	4	2	7	-4	14
15	Havířov	14	2	5	7	-11	11
16	Blansko	14	2	5	7	-14	11
17	Vsetín	13	3	1	9	-16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	2	3	8	-8	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vítkovice win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.