· Analysis updated 10:06 UTC
Vitória de Sernache vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Vitória de Sernache and 2.85 for CF Os Belenenses, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives CF Os Belenenses the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CF Os Belenenses win
81.8% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 2.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória de Sernache home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Os Belenenses away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CF Os Belenenses to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 6% / 12% / 82% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Vitória de Sernache and 2.85 for CF Os Belenenses, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
18%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.0%
- 0–311.4%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–48.1%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Vitória de Sernache
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Caldas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 3-0 (W)
CF Os Belenenses
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Beira-Mar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | Fafe | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Leça | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | União Santarém | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | São João Ver | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Mafra | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Vianense | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Louletano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Varzim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Caldas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Guimaraes B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Trofense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CF Os Belenenses win, at 81.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.