Portugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 613:00

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Sunday, 31 May 2026

· Analysis updated 07:18 UTC

Vitória de Sernache vs Louletano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vitória de Sernache and 0.93 for Louletano, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Vitória de Sernache the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vitória de Sernache home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Louletano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitória de Sernache to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 29% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Vitória de Sernache and 0.93 for Louletano, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Vitória de Sernache win44%

Draw29%

Louletano win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.2%
1–113.1%
0–011.4%
0–110.5%
2–08.9%

Recent form

Vitória de Sernache

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Caldas · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 3-0 (W)

Louletano

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Santarém · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Castrense · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · Vitória de Sernache 1-1 Louletano (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Vitória de Sernache 2-1 Louletano (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round)

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bragança	26	14	6	6	12	48
2	Vianense	26	14	6	6	21	48
3	Brito	26	14	4	8	12	46
4	Celoricense	26	11	9	6	12	42
5	Os Limianos	26	11	8	7	3	41
6	Tirsense	26	9	13	4	9	40
7	Camacha	26	9	9	8	8	36
8	Chaves II	26	9	9	8	11	36
9	Machico	26	10	6	10	-2	36
10	AR São Martinho	26	10	4	12	-9	34
11	Mirandela	26	10	2	14	-8	32
12	Vilaverdense	26	4	10	12	-13	22
13	Ribeira Brava	26	4	8	14	-26	20
14	Monção	26	3	6	17	-30	15
1	Rebordosa	26	17	7	2	24	58
2	Leça	26	14	9	3	27	51
3	Cinfães	26	10	10	6	12	40
4	Beira-Mar	26	10	8	8	8	38
5	Alpendorada	26	9	11	6	8	38
6	Florgrade	26	9	10	7	0	37
7	Vila Meã	26	7	13	6	1	34
8	União Lamas	26	9	6	11	-6	33
9	Salgueiros	26	7	11	8	1	32
10	Aparecida	26	9	4	13	-15	31
11	Anadia	26	7	9	10	-6	30
12	Resende	26	6	10	10	-4	28
13	Vila Real	26	5	12	9	-7	27
14	Gouveia	26	1	4	21	-43	7
1	Vitória de Sernache	26	16	7	3	21	55
2	Oliveira Hospital	26	14	8	4	26	50
3	Naval	26	14	6	6	13	48
4	Benfica Castelo Branco	26	14	4	8	17	46
5	UD da Serra	26	12	8	6	11	44
6	Mortágua	26	11	6	9	-3	39
7	Os Marialvas	26	10	6	10	5	36
8	Fátima	26	8	8	10	-2	32
9	Lajense	26	8	8	10	0	32
10	Peniche	26	8	6	12	-9	30
11	Samora Correir	26	8	5	13	-8	29
12	Marinhense	26	5	9	12	-18	24
13	Eléctrico	26	5	4	17	-29	19
14	Lusitânia	26	4	5	17	-24	17
1	Louletano	26	14	8	4	21	50
2	Atlético Malveira	26	13	8	5	15	47
3	FC Alverca II	26	14	5	7	17	47
4	Juventude Évora	26	12	10	4	13	46
5	Alcochetense	26	11	8	7	11	41
6	Sintrense	26	11	7	8	5	40
7	Lagoa	26	11	6	9	10	39
8	O Elvas	26	9	7	10	4	34
9	FC Serpa	26	9	7	10	-6	34
10	Oriental Lisboa	26	7	11	8	-6	32
11	Moncarapachense	26	7	10	9	0	31
12	Portimonense	26	6	4	16	-23	22
13	Comércio Indústria	26	2	8	16	-25	14
14	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	26	1	11	14	-36	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.