· Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vitória de Sernache and 1.53 for Varzim, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Varzim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória de Sernache home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varzim away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varzim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Vitória de Sernache and 1.53 for Varzim, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Vitória de Sernache
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varzim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Caldas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 3-0 (W)
Varzim
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Trofense · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.