Vitória ES vs Real Noroeste Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Vitória ES and 0.80 for Real Noroeste, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Vitória ES the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vitória ES win

49.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vitória ES home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Noroeste away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitória ES to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Vitória ES and 0.80 for Real Noroeste, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Vitória ES win50%

Draw28%

Real Noroeste win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–015.7%
1–112.6%
0–011.6%
2–010.6%
0–19.3%

Recent form

Vitória ES

2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipatinga · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-23T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilavelhense · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipatinga · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-17T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Vilavelhense · 2-2 (D)

Real Noroeste

2026-06-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Democrata GV · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tombense · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-16T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco ES · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto BA · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manauara	10	6	4	0	8	22
2	Nacional AM	10	6	2	2	6	20
3	Sao Raimundo	10	3	4	3	3	13
4	Monte Roraima	10	2	4	4	-3	10
5	Manaus FC	10	2	4	4	-5	10
6	GAS	10	1	2	7	-9	5
1	Guaporé	10	6	4	0	10	22
2	Porto Velho	10	5	3	2	24	18
3	Araguaína	10	5	3	2	22	18
4	Independência	10	4	3	3	7	15
5	Galvez	10	3	1	6	-17	10
6	Humaitá	10	0	0	10	-46	0
1	Gama	10	8	2	0	17	26
2	Luverdense	10	4	3	3	1	15
3	Brasiliense	10	3	5	2	1	14
4	Aparecidense	10	3	4	3	1	13
5	Primavera MG	10	3	3	4	-3	12
6	Inhumas	10	0	1	9	-17	1
1	Capital Brasilia	10	7	2	1	10	23
2	Goiatuba EC	10	5	4	1	6	19
3	Ceilândia	10	3	3	4	-1	12
4	Mixto	10	2	6	2	1	12
5	União Rondonópolis	10	2	3	5	-7	9
6	CEOV Operário	10	1	2	7	-9	5
1	Trem	10	6	2	2	6	20
2	Águia de Marabá	10	5	3	2	9	18
3	Imperatriz	10	4	3	3	5	15
4	Tuna Luso	10	3	4	3	-3	13
5	Tocantinópolis	10	3	3	4	0	12
6	Oratório	10	1	1	8	-17	4
1	Iguatu	10	5	5	0	7	20
2	Maracanã	10	5	4	1	6	19
3	Parnahyba	10	4	2	4	-2	14
4	Sampaio Correa	10	3	4	3	6	13
5	Moto Club	10	2	3	5	-7	9
6	IAPE	10	0	4	6	-10	4
1	Ferroviario	10	6	3	1	8	21
2	Piauí	10	5	2	3	3	17
3	Fluminense PI	10	3	5	2	3	14
4	Altos	10	3	2	5	-6	11
5	Tirol/CEFAT	10	2	4	4	0	10
6	Uniclinic Atletico Clube	10	1	4	5	-8	7
1	ABC	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	America-RN	10	6	3	1	11	21
3	Maguary PE	10	3	4	3	3	13
4	Central SC	10	3	4	3	1	13
5	Sousa	10	3	1	6	-7	10
6	Laguna	10	0	2	8	-17	2
1	Treze	10	5	2	3	4	17
2	Sergipe	10	4	3	3	2	15
3	Serra Branca	10	3	6	1	4	15
4	Lagarto	10	3	4	3	-1	13
5	Retrô	10	3	3	4	-2	12
6	Decisão	10	2	2	6	-7	8
1	CSA	10	6	3	1	17	21
2	Juazeirense	10	5	2	3	3	17
3	ASA	10	4	4	2	4	16
4	Jacuipense	10	3	4	3	-2	13
5	CSE	10	2	3	5	-7	9
6	Atlético Alagoinhas	10	1	2	7	-15	5
1	Uberlandia	10	5	3	2	4	18
2	Ipatinga	10	4	3	3	3	15
3	CRAC	10	3	4	3	0	13
4	Ivinhema	10	3	4	3	-3	13
5	ABECAT Ouvidorense	10	3	3	4	-1	12
6	Operario Ferroviario	10	2	3	5	-3	9
1	Democrata GV	10	5	2	3	4	17
2	Tombense	10	4	5	1	7	17
3	Vitória ES	10	4	3	3	4	15
4	Rio Branco ES	10	3	4	3	2	13
5	Porto BA	10	3	1	6	-12	10
6	Real Noroeste	10	1	5	4	-5	8
1	Portuguesa	10	6	3	1	10	21
2	Água Santa	10	5	2	3	8	17
3	Portuguesa RJ	10	3	5	2	5	14
4	América RJ	10	3	3	4	-10	12
5	Madureira	10	3	2	5	-5	11
6	Pouso Alegre	10	2	1	7	-8	7
1	XV de Piracicaba	10	4	5	1	5	17
2	Noroeste	10	4	3	3	5	15
3	Velo Clube	10	3	4	3	0	13
4	Sampaio Corrêa RJ	10	3	3	4	-2	12
5	Nova Iguaçu	10	3	3	4	-3	12
6	CFRJ / Maricá	10	3	2	5	-5	11
1	Santa Catarina	10	6	1	3	6	19
2	Cianorte	10	5	1	4	1	16
3	Cascavel	10	4	3	3	5	15
4	São Luiz	10	4	3	3	2	15
5	Joinville	10	4	3	3	2	15
6	Guarany de Bagé	10	1	1	8	-16	4
1	Blumenau	10	6	1	3	6	19
2	Marcílio Dias	10	4	4	2	4	16
3	Independiente FSJ	10	3	4	3	-1	13
4	Sao Jose	10	3	4	3	-2	13
5	Brasil DE Pelotas	10	2	4	4	-3	10
6	Azuriz	10	2	3	5	-4	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vitória ES win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.