· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Vitória ES vs Rio Branco-VN Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Vitória ES and 0.98 for Rio Branco-VN, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Vitória ES the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vitória ES win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória ES home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rio Branco-VN away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.8%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
Vitória ES
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipatinga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-23T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilavelhense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipatinga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-17T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Vilavelhense · 2-2 (D)
Rio Branco-VN
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto Vitória · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Vitória · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Brasil ES · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 0-1 Rio Branco-VN (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 0-1 Rio Branco-VN (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2026-02-07T22:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 3-0 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2025-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 2-1 Rio Branco-VN (Copa Espírito Santo)
- 2025-03-09T19:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 0-0 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2025-03-06T21:30:00.000Z · Vitória ES 1-1 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2025-01-29T23:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 1-1 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2024-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 1-2 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2024-03-23T20:00:00.000Z · Vitória ES 0-1 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
- 2024-03-02T18:30:00.000Z · Vitória ES 1-2 Rio Branco-VN (Capixaba)
Copa Espírito Santo table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitória | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitória ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco-VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra Talhada | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vitória ES win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.