· Analysis updated 20:20 UTC
Vitória ES vs Vilavelhense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Vitória ES and 1.19 for Vilavelhense, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Vitória ES the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vitória ES win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitória ES home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vilavelhense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitória ES to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for Vitória ES and 1.19 for Vilavelhense, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Vitória ES
- 2026-07-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco-VN · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipatinga · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-23T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Vilavelhense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipatinga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-17T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Vilavelhense · 2-2 (D)
Vilavelhense
- 2026-06-23T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-17T21:45:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-28T21:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco ES · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Espírito Santo table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto Vitória | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Vitória ES | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco-VN | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Rio Branco ES | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Sport Brasil ES | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 7 | Serra Talhada | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Audax São Mateus | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vitória ES win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.