· Analysis updated 06:54 UTC
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Moreirense U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Vitoria Guimaraes U19 and 0.91 for Moreirense U19, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Vitoria Guimaraes U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moreirense U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vitoria Guimaraes U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes U19 and 0.91 for Moreirense U19, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu U19 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gil Vicente U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicão U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Braga U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave U19 · 0-2 (L)
Moreirense U19
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Feirense U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gil Vicente U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Braga U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave U19 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Júniores U19 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Guimaraes U19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 1 | Benfica U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Porto U19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Sporting CP U19 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Clara U19 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Torreense U19 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu U19 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Oriental U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Casa Pia U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Feirense U19 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mafra U19 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Famalicão U19 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Farense U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Moreirense U19 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | União Leiria U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
| 10 | Vizela U19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca U19 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vitoria Guimaraes U19 win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.