Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Referee L. M. Branco Godinho · Analysis updated 22:01 UTC
Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.88 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Vitória SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vitória SC win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Why the model likes this
Vitória SC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casa Pia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 9 meetings.
Recent form
Vitória SC
- 2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 3-1 (W)
Casa Pia
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leixoes · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-11T19:15:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-12-28T15:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-01T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-02-24T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-2 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-02-19T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-0 Casa Pia (Taça da Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.